Global temperatures are on track to rise 2.6°C (4.7°F) above preindustrial levels by 2100, according to the UN’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 released on Tuesday, which examines and tracks the gap between nations’ climate goals and the reality on the ground, seas and air.

The report concludes what we already knew from previous reports and studies released this year: governments are failing. The window has closed on keeping global heating to 1.5°C, the target agreed at the 2015 climate talks in Paris, and making rapid emissions cuts is essential to keep the overshoot as low and short as possible to return temperatures to 1.5°C or below by 2100. A lowest-overshoot pathway would limit peak warming to about 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, but current national commitments and policies remain far off track.

There’s blame to go around but as the report points out, much of it can be directed to the intransigence and back-stepping by the US under the second Trump administration. From the report:

While there has been an apparent narrowing of the global implementation gap since last year’s report, this does not reflect stronger policy action. Instead, it is largely explained by the withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement, which led to the removal of its NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) target from global aggregations and its replacement with current policy emissions projections by global modelling teams.

And

If all NDCs are delivered and similar efforts continue, there is a 66 per cent chance that warming will be limited to 2.6°C by 2100. This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since last year have a near-zero impact on expected emissions and warming.

And

In terms of magnitude, the increase in the United States of America (133 megatons of CO2 equivalent, MtCO2e) far exceeded that of all other countries, and was driven by increased electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation.

A few key takeaways:

Required emissions cuts: Global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 compared with 2025 levels, an average annual reduction of about 5.7% through 2035.

Commitment gap: Full implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the reduction commitments made by countries, would cut emissions by only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035.

Projected warming: Current policies point to about 2.8°C of warming this century; full NDC delivery lowers this to 2.6°C, while adding net-zero pledges limits warming to about 2.1°C.

Delay raises the peak: Every five years of CO₂ emissions at current levels adds roughly 0.1°C to peak warming. Even the lowest-overshoot pathway would require permanent removal of around 320 gigatonnes of CO₂ this century, with uncertain feasibility.

Evidence that policy works: More than 220 evaluations show electricity-sector policies reduced emissions by an average of 9%, while carbon pricing and related economic instruments achieved reductions of 5–13%.

Energy priorities: Countries must accelerate the Global Stocktake goals –tripling renewable capacity, doubling energy-efficiency improvement, transitioning away from fossil fuels, cutting methane and reversing deforestation.

2035–2040 milestones: Renewable electricity capacity should at least triple by 2035 and reach 4.5 times 2025 levels by 2040. Coal-fired generation must fall at least 75% by 2035 and be effectively phased out by 2040; methane should decline 25% by 2035 and 40% by 2040.

Reasons for optimism? Yes. Since the Paris Agreement, renewable capacity has grown three times faster than expected and solar deployment seven times faster. Scaling proven policies could still deliver a more stable climate, economy and society.

The report is here and the press release here.

Other coverage:

• Guardian
• Nature
• Irish Times